Wednesday, February 6, 2008

not a super-duper surprise

For the full results of "Super-Duper"/tsunami Tuesday click here. To watch Jon Stewart from the/a Daily Show comment on the terms used to define Tuesday, watcher warning: it's cheeky.

The real surprise was on the Republican side with the come back of Mike Huckabee, at least this was a surprise to me, probably reflecting the liberal media I've been reading lately. Huckabee won 5 Southern States, thus proving that he is still in the race and that the evangelical branch of the Republican Party are still capable of getting the vote out and making a difference. Without really up-setting the McCain/Romney race, Huckabee has shown that he can still make a difference and I suspect that ultimately he is weakening Romney by dividing the socially conservative voting block. The former governor from Massachussetts won 7 States, including Utah, not utterly surprisingly. 
The big wins go to McCain who took California and New York, which are two States with winner takes all primaries : in terms of delegates McCain is clearly ahead with a total of 613, to Romney's 269 and Huckabee's 190. McCain has now acknowledged his status as front-runner, saying he "didn't mind it a bit"! 

On the Democratic side, the neck to neck race was expected to continue beyond February 5, and it will for certain. Clinton is slightly ahead in the delegate count but Obama remains a strong contender. Clinton has won the States that have the most delegates and her opponent has taken the States that held caucuses, his home state Illinois and the Southern States, partly thanks to the Black vote. One must wonder who the Edwards supporters have turned to : I suspect they would be more likely to root for Clinton if they are most concerned with economic issues and health care, but might turn to Obama if what they are looking for is another anti-politics-as-usual outsider and if they are wary of the Clinton dynasty and ready for change (or sensitive to the rhetoric of change).
The Latino vote has proved crucial for Hillary Clinton (30% of California Democrats are Latino) and will certainly be a strategic consituency come the November election. For a clear and intelligent analysis of the Latino vote read Nancy Cook's article for NPR. I wonder whether the Latino community's overwhelming support of Clinton will not prove to be Obama's main stumbling block. If Hillary and McCain run for the White House, the Latino vote will be courted by both sides and it will be interesting to see what happens.


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