A modern mystery : the Democratic delegate count

You may have noticed that the delegate count for the Democratic convention varies widely, according to the media you refer to. Why is that? To understand the intricacies of the delegate count this is what you need to know : 

1. The selection of the delegates in the States that hold caucuses is a protracted process : there are often several steps before the final share of delegates is apportionned between the candidates. 

For instance, the Iowa delegates have still not been finally pledged because there is a four step process, of which the famous caucus night is only the first. According to the results of the caucus, projections can be made but we will have to wait for the Iowa state convention to get the final results. This is also the case in other States holding caucuses rather than primaries. Each news outlet decides how they want to count the delegates : do they resort to projections while the process is unfolding or do they wait until the final decision is made before counting the caucus delegates?

2. The second problem is deeper-seated and very contreversial : the existence of Democratic superdelegates. 

Who on earth are these superdelegates and what are they for? Why have they become so contreversial this year? Will the superdelegates save America? 

• The superdelegates are around 790 Democratic officials, such as congressmen, senators, governors and party leaders who are seated at the Democratic Convention. They will thus participate in the selection of the Democratic nominee for the presidential election. Their vote has exactly the same weight as all the other non-super, democratically-selected-in-the-primary-and-caucus-process delegates but they represent a huge force in the convention ( roughly 1/5th of all delegates) and they can thus make quite a difference in the outcome of the race. 
• The superdelegates were created after the 1980 election as a way to give the Democratic Establishment some control over the selection of the candidate. Indeed, this was meant to dampen the party's grassroots' taste for maverick radical candidates. The wariness of party officials for the popular choice is based on the fact that in the 1970s the Democratic activists had become more radical than the Establishment. For instance in 1972 McGovern had been selected by the base to be the nominee, his campaign had faltered and the Democrats lost the race for the White House due to his anti-war stance and his liberal positions on social issues. The superdelegates are meant to give power to the party officials and to ponder the base's choices. 
  
• This year the race is so close that the outcome is likely to depend on the way the superdelegates vote : the candidate they support en masse will get the nomination. Ever since the beginning of the primary season, the candidates have been trying to get as many endorsements from the superdelegates. However the latter can always change their minds and are absolutely unbound by any commitment prior to the convention. For now Senator Clinton has the most superdelegates.
• The problem that has emerged lately is that the superdelegates will be the king-makers of the Democratic party: many question whether that is fair or democratic. In the past, the superdelegates had rallied unproblematically behind the winner of the "popular vote".  Will they do so if Obama comes out ahead of the primaries although most of them have officially supported Clinton? 

Hillary Clinton says that the superdelegates should vote according to their conscience, chosing the person they think is best fit to be "commander in chief from day one". Barack Obama declared that the superdelegates ought to support the winner of the majority of the popular vote or to vote as their own home state did: if things continue to go his way, under such a rule he would win over many delegates. 

To come back to my original question on the discrepancies in the delegate count from one media to the others, let us say that some media count the pledges of the superdelegates in their official count and other don't, which also explains why the figures vary from one outlet to the other. 

Listen to Democratic consultant Tad Devine on the subject of the superdelegates. 

Read or listen to more analysis on the dilemna for superdelegates : loyalty vs. constituency. This is especially true for Black congressmen and senators.