The place of the South in presidential politics

One of the deep changes that this election year seems to have brought about is a shift in the geo-political balance of the country. After being the stronghold of the Democrats for a century, the South tipped to the Republicans thanks to  Richard Nixon's "Southern Strategy" in 1968 and due to the committment of the Democrats to civil rights reform, racial integration and federal control of the implementation of these policies. 

Since then, the South has been considered: 

1. a bastion of Republicanism

2. a must-win for any presidential candidate 

These two ideas may seem contradictory at first (since Democrats won 3 presidential elections since the 1970s), but remember that the two Democratic Presidents since the 1970s (and for that matter since Lyndon B. Johnson) were southerners and that was a contributing factor to their electoral victory : they managed to take the South (or chunks of it) away from the Republican Party. 

Jimmy Carter, a former Senator and Governor from Georgia, won every single Southern State in 1976 (see electoral map). In 1992, the all Southern ticket, Clinton (Governor of Arkansas)+ Gore (Senator from Tennessee) made significant inroads in the South, taking Georgia, Louisiana and Arkansas along with Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee ( see 1992 electoral map) ; in 1996, the incumbent President and VP won Florida and lost Georgia ( see 1996 electoral map). 

This week I read a very interesting article on the political weight of the  South in American presidential politics after this election. I don't agree with everything they say but it is well worth your time. 

Basically the gist of the argument is this:

The region’s absence from Mr. Obama’s winning formula means it “is becoming distinctly less important,” said Wayne Parent, a political scientist at Louisiana State University. “The South has moved from being the center of the political universe to being an outside player in presidential politics.”

The South is losing its make or break status in presidential politics because :

-   this year NO Southerners were on the presidential tickets of either party. 

-  the South is breaking up as a voting block ( I'd qualify this: look at the Clinton electoral victories) : with peripheral, more suburban and educated states (NC, Va and Fl) falling out of step with the rest of the region.

-  the Southern white male vote went emphatically to McCain and is no longer needed to win the election. 

-  the South is now the last bastion of Republicanism ( I'd say : have another look at the electoral map, the Mid West is solidly GOP as well!) and the country's political divide may well be a sectional one as well, i.e. geographical areas are split up between the parties. In this case, there are very few Republicans in the Senate and House of Representatives elected by the North-East, which is solidly Democratic and it's the other way around in the South . I trust that my students remember what the sectional divide of the country build the grounds for in the 1840-60s. 

I'd like to add that perhaps the South is changing and turning away from some of its core beliefs (opposition to federal/Northern interference, defence of small governement and low taxes; all of which can be summarized in the motto "States' Rights" with all the historical baggage that comes with it...) and rattled as it is by the crisis may well be opening up to some of the Democratic policy proposals. I still have in mind the uncanny homemade sign mentionned earlier : "Rednecks 4 Obama, cause even we're sick of this s#@*". 

How true this general analysis will prove to be is difficult to assess. 

Why? Because of the rather unsual circumstances of this electoral contest : an incumbent president with the lowest ratings ever, an embattled Republican party, a Black candidate, an unprecedented economic crisis. All the factors certainly distorted the political dynamics of the country. And whether some of the trends, initiated in 2008, will prove lasting is yet to be seen. 

For more on electoral shifts and detailed county by county data : survey this interactive map. 

I was thinking of discussing the future of the Republican Party in one of my next posts, rather than President elect Obama's transition team.  Does that sound good? 

Pictures contributed by my special correspondant in Atlanta, Georgia

30 minutes?

The British media had quite a laugh when they heard that the French president had spent a whole 30 minutes on the phone with the President elect. Gordon Brown reported a 10 minute conversation. 

Listen to BBC Radio 4's Any Questions broadcast on Friday (if you listen to it on their website, the programme doesn't start immediately, to hear the joke go directly to : 13'30 to get the context of the discussion about the "special relationship"). 

Questions and tentative answers

From my special correspondant in Atlanta, Georgia two pictures I would like to share with you:

You'll have noticed the confederate flag's unexpected apparition in the O. How to explain this paradox? Let's ask them :

Do pardon my French, I'm sure they'd say. But this seem to show a momentous change happening in America, at least symbolically. More pictures and stories from Atlanta in a later post. 

Now that the headlines are perhaps starting to settle down and turn to other issues than the American presidential election, it is perhaps time to take a step back, try and understand what has happened, what Obama's election means and how it was acheived.

1. The first Black President. 

 The media everywhere, and perhaps even more so in France and European countries have been prompt to hail Obama's victory as one for all African-Americans and people of colour.  We've all read expressions as "racial barriers are breaking down". How true is this? 

It's difficult to say, but what I do think needs reminding is that: 

-   Obama never ran as the/a Black candidate, making his bid very different from that of Jesse Jackson in 1988 and thus attracting some tough remarks from the latter. His was a "post-racial" campaign. When he called attention to his skin colour it was always in the context of heralding the possibilities of America, in which a man born of a woman from Kansas and a man from Kenya would become a presidential candidate. He doesn't not have the same background or experience of African-Americans whose collective identity was forged by the memory of slavery and segregation. Obama is from a different background and a different generation.  

 Actually what does Obama's victory mean for Black America? 

 

-  The theme of "change" was broad enough to serve as a vehicle to each person's aspirations : so the Democrat's victory is different things to different people. Obviously for African-Americans and for many others the main "change" was the possibility to vote for a Black president for the first time. But the rhetoric of "change" certainly meant many other things. 

In his speech Obama clearly emphasized that his election was not enough of a "change"; there was a lot more to be done to rebuild America, its self confidence and its international standing. 

2. The historic nature of the election. 

The word (beware of the difference between historic and historical) has been on every lip and at the tip of every pen or keypad for the last couple of weeks. It's always difficult to assess, as it is happening, how historic an election will prove to be. 

At the very least, 2008 will be a historic election because people saw it as a unique moment in history and millions of Americans were eager to participate in it and "make history". I think that this is probably the most striking feature of the election, regardless of its real historic nature (which I do not doubt, don't get me wrong), its perceived historic nature is even more interesting. People truly believed they were making the American dream come true, revealing the true nature of American values. This will probably go down in history books as a great moment of self-definition and of nation-building. 

Obama's wonderful talents as a speaker have also emphasized the theme of "history in the making". In his victory he uses the example of a Black woman from Selma, Alabama to paint the backdrop of his victory:

 

He goes through the important events of the last 106 years (the age of this voter) : slavery wasn't very far away, women couldn't vote, the Depression was followed by the New Deal, World War II was fought to defend democracy, the civil rights movement was also based on the extension of American values to all, regardless of skin colour. He mentions the Montgomery bus boycott of 1955-6 sparked off by Rosa Parks, the Birmingham fight against segregation and the brutal use of force by the police chief "Bull" O'Connor, the preacher from Atlanta, Dr. Martin Luther King, whose rhetoric flows in Obama's speech : especially at the end when he echoes the last words of the pastor : that maybe not in one year or in one term but that "as a nation we will get there". 

Many are inclined to see this election as the last step of the civil rights movement, as Obama himself suggests here. And his election certainly meant a lot to some people in Selma, as cleverly and touchingly presented in this video from the NYTimes.

The scale of the involvement of the grass-roots is unheard of; so perhaps even more significant than Obama's victory is how he won. 

3. The how and the why. 

The senator from Illinois won thanks to : 

- an amazing locally based network of active supporters.  These figures really blew my mind : 2/3 of the people who voted for Obama had been contacted by someone from his campaign ( phone or face to face, excluding robo-calls). For McCain the figure is 1/4.  The outreach effort was huge. The voter registration drive was also unprecedented : 19% of Black voters were voting for the first time (and 8% of whites). Two important consituencies for Obama : women, the young and Blacks ( International Herald Tribune). 

- new-technology and the internet, used to raise mind-boggling amounts of cash. 

- a well organized campaign that never strayed from its plan. The team was focussed, disciplined and used his opponent's mistakes to his advantage : many now see McCain's "the fundementals of the economy are strong" remark in the midst of the financial meltdown as the tipping point in the campaign (mid-September). 

-  and last but not least (!) the candidate himself, a remarkable speaker, thinker and campaigner, with a much needed message of change, union and hope. 

I should add to the factors explaining the Democratic win that John McCain was dogged by :

-  a fledging economy

-  president Bush's poor record 

-  the Republican brand, which was toxic. 

-  a poorly organized campaign team

-  his VP choice : for the last two days I've been hearing alarming comments leaked by McCain advisers on her attitude and ignorance (it's appalling stuff and I'd hope that it's not true for the sake of Republicans) 

4. Things seen and links

I've watched an interesting video on the perspective of Muslim students from NY on America,  the election, how Obama's campaign reacted to Muslim supporters and how they decided not to advertise their support for fear of stoking the rumours that Obama was a Muslim ( always used to discredit his candidacy by some vile opponents). 

For an emotional video overview of the last two years of campaigning : watch this, it will bring up memories. 

final results

A landslide victory for Obama and a lot of enthousiasm. 

Look at the map to see the extent of the victory : Obama took Pennsylvania and many former red states (Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, Iowa...)

Listen to or download Obama's victory speech and McCain's concession speech. 

election coverage

At 5 AM in the UK : a sweeping  Obama victory is projected and McCain conceded the election. Electoral map.

It's difficult/impossible to get through to all the major networks via the internet. These are the results and projections so far: 

McCain  Obama 

Kentucky (8) Vermont (3)

At 1 AM in the UK : I'm listening to BBC Radio 4, all major TV/radio/newpaper websites are not available.  Virginia may be close as may be North Carolina. The Guardian is calling Oklahoma and Tennessee and Arkansas for McCain with Connecticut and Maine for Obama. 

Virginia and Pennsylvania may be going for Obama, although this was not confirmed as yet by CNN.

How to follow an American election?

Just a very very simple reminder of how things will unfold tonight: 

The basic approach is to have a map and colour in blue or red each State as the results come in. 

Along with a map and the allocation of electoral college votes by State, you need a two column chart. When a State is called for one or the other candidate, you then put the number of electoral college votes allocated to the State in the column of the winner ( "winner takes all system"). 

A candidate needs 270 electoral college votes to win the election. 

I will be watching Virginia ("Virginia is the new Florida" is the title of an article dealing with difficulties at the polling stations, posted on the Nation's website) and Pennsylvania ( and perhaps Indiana, Ohio or Colorado as well) very carefully : whoever wins both will be well on his way to win the White House. But I don't expect the results to be in before late in the night or early in the morning in Europe. 

For some last predictions : 

-  read Ken Rudin's appraisal : Obama wins and the Democrats do well in Congress. In his opinion, Obama keeps Pennsylvania blue and takes the following red states :Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico. Mc Cain fails to win over any blue States and keeps Florida, Indiana, Missouri ( thus loosing its bellwether status!), North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia. 

Ken Rudin ( a favourite commentator of mine from It's All Politics podcast) does not fail to remind his readers of his rather poor record on predictions : he had predicted Democratic victories in 2000 and 2004!

If you are too impatient to wait for the main networks to broadcast the results, here is a recipe for finding things out for yourself. 

Look at the early returns of several key or representative/bellwether counties in the key States. Political analyst Tom Oliphant gives you the tools to become your own political expert and pundit. Will his recipe work? 

For more advice of this kind : visit the Nation's page on how to decipher early signs along with a count down of what to expect during this long night.  Look out for Kentucky where polls close early and an Obama win would probably signal a Democratic landslide; keep an eye on Virginia and Indiana; some Senate races will be equally indicative of the national mood : Georgia's senatorial contest is very close, a Democratic victory would be good news for their camp. The results of New Hampshire will be known fairly early in the night : this is State that McCain should win...

last polls...

Last polls indicate, as expected, that McCain is narrowing the gap, probably showing that more and more undecided voters are making up their mind and going for what may appear to them as the safest choice. I've heard lots of interviews of people who are frightened by Barack Obama. I strongly recommend This American Life's "Battle Ground" podcast, a documentary on the election in Pennsylvania. Many still harbour doubts about his religion, or think he has a radical or marxist agenda.  The endless reminders of his connection with Ayers, a former terrorist, have also really left a dent in his reputation and are discouraging voters who were already suspicious to pull the lever for him (in the US, many voting machines have levers that you need to pull, the actual process of voting is quite different from what we have in France, check the infamous and indeed confusing "butterfly ballots" used in Florida in 2000). A very high turnout is expected to put strains on the polling stations and the voting system : who will it discourage from voting and how will it impact the outcome, is anyones guess. 

My own poll : 

Are any of you going to stay up late/all night or wake up in the middle of the night or very early to monitor the results? 

If you do, would like to come on the blog and let us know what is going on and what news media you are watching ? 

Last moves and stories

1. Where are the candidates right now? 

These last campaign stops clearly indicate what the key states are and which might make the election. For instance McCain has been travelling in Virginia, a State that has not voted for a Democratic President for 44 years, but that might go either way this year and that the Republicans are wary of loosing. The state of Pennsylvania is also attracting a lot of visits from the Republican team, since, as I have mentionned in an earlier post, it is a critical battleground state. 

No Republican President won the election without taking Ohio; and both campaigns are now canvassing the state in an effort to get the vote out and convince the undecided.

The Republicans are concentrating their attention on states with a strong working class population and where Obama didn't fare very well in the primaries, hoping to pick up disgruntled Clinton supporters.

The Guardian offered two maps showing the past week's campaign stops of both candidates : 

A. Both campaigns visited : Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina and of course Florida, a key state for the Republicans if their is one. 

B. In addition Obama or Biden also visited Nevada, Colorado and Iowa. 

Excepting Pennsylvania these states were all won by George W Bush in 2004. Obama is trying to ratchet up support in traditionnally "red" states while the McCain campaign is mostly playing defense. 

2. Obama's aunt living illegally in Boston has not become a big story, although all the networks are covering it as a "non-story"!?!

3. Before the campaign is over, time for a laugh.  Watch this video of John McCain and Tina Fay playing Sarah Palin pretending to try and raise money. This is from Saturday Night Live, a comedy show that you have probably heard of : 

-  reference to campaign costs (the $150,000 spent on Palin's attire)

-  reference to Palin "going rogue" : I recommend watching Jon Stewart's explanation for this one, a good summary of the mainstream media's hysteria over Palin's unplanned/unscripted comments on various issues: 

For more hilarious videos : Palin playing herself and confusing people at the studio of Saturday Night Live; McCain presenting his new strategies...

Jon Stewart's take on Obama's infomercial is quite good too: watch.