perspective and analysis on recent events

Today, Louisianna holds its primary and Washington its caucus,  and the Republicans in Kansas and Democrats in Nebraska will also be choosing a candidate in a caucus. Louisianna is quite important for both parties : the consequences of Katrina are still felt today 

and the response offered by the candidates to the issues of reconstruction and endemic poverty are being closely examined. Will Obama's  and Huckabee's lead in the Southern States remain strong?

Ususally, Barack Obama does better in caucuses than Hillary Clinton, we may wonder whether he will gain some more momentum going into Tuesday's contest when DC, Virginia and Maryland vote. 

As we wait for the results I would like to go over a couple recent events : 

1. The financial situation of Hillary Clinton's campaign 
2. The reasons why Mitt Romney's bid for the presidency ultimately failed
3. The state of the Republican coalition

1. Hillary Clinton has loaned $5M to her campaign, what does that mean ? Should we interpret this as a sign of weakness ( Mitt Romney spent $35M of his personal fortune before stepping down)? Or does it show the candidate's committment to his/her campaign ? NPR offers a commentary on this issue, alongside with a spectacularly unflattering picture of Senator Clinton. In the meantime Barack Obama has been raising more than twice as much money as Clinton in the month of January, pointing to a lot of enthousiam for his campaign. The challenge for the Senator from Illinois is converting his general popularity among the young and the independent into votes in the primary elections.
2. An interesting analysis of Mitt Romney's withdrawal (its causes and its consequences for him as a potential future candidate in 2012) is to be heard on NPRs website. Ron Elvin's comment (on the same page) is also very interesting. For a humourous perspective on this event, refer to Jon Stewart's commentary : here. Beware however, Mitt Romney's comment on France is completely out of context in this video. 
3. Is the Republican coalition, as shaped by Ronald Reagang, going to pieces? To what extent is the GOP's ideology changing, and conservatism being redefined? The evangelicals had been the kingmakers for more than 2 decades, but they no longer seem to bear the same weight. Is that because their vote was courted by many candidates or is it because they may be loosing their central role in the conservative coalition? McCain has been winning primaries without their support, however he will need it to win the general election : how is he going to gain their trust? will he pick Huckabee to run as VP? 

Here is a NBC video of the Republican race :

It's interesting that they should go back to Barry Goldwater to find the roots of the conservative movement. Do you remember that he was the Republican candidate in 1964 and presented a completely new vision for the GOP that later became the mainstream ideology.

UPDATE ON THE BILL ISSUE 

Read Bill Clinton's reaction to criticism about the way he has been interfering in his wife's campaign. He does realize that his being a former president has an impact on the way he can engage in political battles.