the run-up to March 4

Tension is escalating between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama. On Tuesday a last debate was held in Ohio before the four states vote next week : Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont. 

Remember that a week ago, the debate in Austin had been seen as mild and rather concensual, although the candidates had clearly tried to draw sharp contrasts between their policies and their readiness to lead :  "ready to be President from day 1" has been Clinton's mantra for some time. However the debate had ended on a cordial note. Some commentators even started wondering if she was preparing a concession speech and getting ready to drop out of the race and reunite the party behind one candidate.

But Saturday, Hillary Clinton really went after her opponent by using agressive rhetoric to criticize attacks that the Obama campaing had launched against her healthcare plan : watch the video on youtube where she says "Shame on you Barack Obama" and then challenges him to come in Ohio and debate her ( she accuses him of trying to avoid debates where she usually makes a more favourable impression than he does thanks to her precise grasp on policy issues). Pay attention to the way she places her candidacy in the shadow of a long string of Democratic presidents. 

Clinton also demonstrated her imitation skills : 

Her combative mood persisted Tuesday and was actually highlighted by the debate moderator in Cleveland, Ohio.

She attacked his policy plans as inefficient, exposing his healthcare as sub-universal, his rhetoric as inflated and shallow,and his general lack of experience, which has always been her selling point. The main themes of the debate were : 

• the economy and NAFTA : particularly of interest to the voters of the industrial state of Ohio, which has suffered severely from the economic recession and from the increased competition  and subsequent job losses partly (?) due to the trade agreements with Canada and Mexico signed during Bill Clinton's presidency.
• healthcare
• the war in Irak 
• foreign policy (Kosovo, Russia and Putin's successor)

Watch the entire debate and analyze its content (NYT), or read a summary in French with several embedded videos.  

News from the campaign trail

So here is a quick round up of this week's political news : 

1. Obama defeated Clinton in the Wisconsin primary and the Hawaii caucus. He has been increasingly chipping away at her electoral base : women, blue-collar workers and less significantly older democrats. All the commentators are wondering whether this is Clinton's last stand and whether she will be able to hold the fort (Alamo, of course) in Texas and Ohio. 
2. McCain also took the two States that were voting on Tuesday : Wisconsin and Washington (in this State the GOP organizes both a caucus -FEB 9- and a primary : each event allocating half of the delegates). 
3. McCain had to fight an attack on his ethic choices and allegations of marital infidelity. The New York Times published an article on the subject on Thursday. This has provoqued a tidal wave of criticism against the NYT from all sides : from the left with the analysis of the New Republic and obviously from the right. The journalists who wrote the original attack are under fire and responding to the questions asked by readers.
4. Senator Obama's idyll with the media seems to have come to an abrupt end and his candidacy is being increasingly questionned. The French "In blog we trust" offers a good presentation of what the disenamoured press has been saying on Obama's lack of substance.
5. Obama responded to attacks on his campaign as being all-words no substance by yet another rhetorical flight : "I have a dream, just words?, we hold these truths to be self evident that all men were created equal, just words? We have nothing to fear but fear itself, just words? Don't tell me words don't matter." Senator Clinton pointed out that Senator Obama had lifted these words off Governor Deval Patrick. The latter works in the Obama campaign and the problem was dismissed as a non issue. However there has been several other mentions of plagiarism by Barack Obama and by Hillary Clinton. 
6. The two Democratic Senators met in Austin, Texas for a debate during which they highlighted their differences especially on health care. Watch the debate and read the transcript or read a short summary in English or one in French. The debate ended on a note of unity and fair-play when Sen. Clinton said she was honoured to be on the stage with Sen. Obama ; the two candidates then shook hand effusively !
7. The race for John Edwards' endorsement is still on. The following video summarizes this week's news on the Democratic side. 

Tuesday's elections

Wisconsin is holding its primary tomorrow. Last week Clinton had suggested that she would not campaign there, but in the face Obama's long string of victories, she has decided to fight to make as good a showing as she can. 

The State of Hawaii also holds a caucus tomorrow, although Obama leads solidly in this State where he lived as a child, Clinton is also trying to compete with him. Senator Clinton's strategy for these two States is basically damage control : she needs to stall Obama's apparent momentum and hold her ground until the two crucial primaries of March 4 : Texas and Ohio. 

A modern mystery : the Democratic delegate count

You may have noticed that the delegate count for the Democratic convention varies widely, according to the media you refer to. Why is that? To understand the intricacies of the delegate count this is what you need to know : 

1. The selection of the delegates in the States that hold caucuses is a protracted process : there are often several steps before the final share of delegates is apportionned between the candidates. 

For instance, the Iowa delegates have still not been finally pledged because there is a four step process, of which the famous caucus night is only the first. According to the results of the caucus, projections can be made but we will have to wait for the Iowa state convention to get the final results. This is also the case in other States holding caucuses rather than primaries. Each news outlet decides how they want to count the delegates : do they resort to projections while the process is unfolding or do they wait until the final decision is made before counting the caucus delegates?

2. The second problem is deeper-seated and very contreversial : the existence of Democratic superdelegates. 

Who on earth are these superdelegates and what are they for? Why have they become so contreversial this year? Will the superdelegates save America? 

• The superdelegates are around 790 Democratic officials, such as congressmen, senators, governors and party leaders who are seated at the Democratic Convention. They will thus participate in the selection of the Democratic nominee for the presidential election. Their vote has exactly the same weight as all the other non-super, democratically-selected-in-the-primary-and-caucus-process delegates but they represent a huge force in the convention ( roughly 1/5th of all delegates) and they can thus make quite a difference in the outcome of the race. 
• The superdelegates were created after the 1980 election as a way to give the Democratic Establishment some control over the selection of the candidate. Indeed, this was meant to dampen the party's grassroots' taste for maverick radical candidates. The wariness of party officials for the popular choice is based on the fact that in the 1970s the Democratic activists had become more radical than the Establishment. For instance in 1972 McGovern had been selected by the base to be the nominee, his campaign had faltered and the Democrats lost the race for the White House due to his anti-war stance and his liberal positions on social issues. The superdelegates are meant to give power to the party officials and to ponder the base's choices. 
  
• This year the race is so close that the outcome is likely to depend on the way the superdelegates vote : the candidate they support en masse will get the nomination. Ever since the beginning of the primary season, the candidates have been trying to get as many endorsements from the superdelegates. However the latter can always change their minds and are absolutely unbound by any commitment prior to the convention. For now Senator Clinton has the most superdelegates.
• The problem that has emerged lately is that the superdelegates will be the king-makers of the Democratic party: many question whether that is fair or democratic. In the past, the superdelegates had rallied unproblematically behind the winner of the "popular vote".  Will they do so if Obama comes out ahead of the primaries although most of them have officially supported Clinton? 

Hillary Clinton says that the superdelegates should vote according to their conscience, chosing the person they think is best fit to be "commander in chief from day one". Barack Obama declared that the superdelegates ought to support the winner of the majority of the popular vote or to vote as their own home state did: if things continue to go his way, under such a rule he would win over many delegates. 

To come back to my original question on the discrepancies in the delegate count from one media to the others, let us say that some media count the pledges of the superdelegates in their official count and other don't, which also explains why the figures vary from one outlet to the other. 

Listen to Democratic consultant Tad Devine on the subject of the superdelegates. 

Read or listen to more analysis on the dilemna for superdelegates : loyalty vs. constituency. This is especially true for Black congressmen and senators. 

Is McCain a liberal?

Over the last few weeks and as he emerged as the Republican front-runner, McCain has been taking a lot of flak from the right-wing Christian conservative branch of his party. They consider him unfit to be the Republican nominee because of 

1. his position on immigration reform : McCain has co-sponsored a bill with Ted Kennedy which would provide, amongst other things, the possibility for illegal immigrants to gain a legal status. 

2. his position on campaign reform : McCain-Feingold bill limits the availability of soft money and imposes a ban on political ads about the issues paid for by independent groups 60 days before an election. This type of unofficial ads were used in campaigns to highlight, for example, the position of a candidate on issues in order to discredit him/her. For the conservatives this is an intolerable restriction on free speech. 

3. his position on the Bush tax -cuts : the Arizona Senator voted against the tax-cuts twice not only because the package was biased in favor of the richer Americans but because he considered it was not financially sound since it would increase the deficit. 

4. his stance against torturing terrorists. 

The most vocal, extreme and intentionally shocking of his critics is the ultra-conservative political pundit ( = "someone who is often asked to give his/her opinion in the media) Ann Coulter. She is a vehement critic of American liberals and Democrats : for instance one of her books is entitled : If Democrats had brains they'd be Republican. 

 A short visit to her website will give you an idea of the type of rhetoric she is using against McCain : basically she is accusing him of being liberal and she has been saying that she supports Hillary Clinton (the Conservative's arch-enemy!) to emphasize her opposition to McCain. 

She's been calling her "my girl Hillary" for the last couple days, which is of course quite funny when you know Ann Coulter's convictions : read her article "From Goldwater Girl to Hillary Girl" (NB : another reference to the "father of modern conservatism, Barry Goldwater). In this article she denounces Arnold Shwarzeneger as a liberal Republican as well. 

I can imagine that you would be put off or shocked by her style, because we are not used to hearing such opinionated commentators in France. But take what she says with a pinch of salt, she is also a bit of a comedian. 

Other people express similar views to those of Ann Coulter, such as Rush Limbaugh who also is strongly opposed to McCain. 

The Potomac results

McCain won the three primaries that took place in Tuesday. He won Virginia, Washington D.C. and Maryland with a rather serious lead on Mike Huckabee. Is the latter's campaign coming to an end? The two GOP contenders maintain friendly relations : McCain joked that his rival was keeping the race "interesting", "maybe a little too interesting tonight" he added refering to the moment on Tuesday night when the media were calling Virginia for Huckabee before announcing that actually McCain had won with a 9% lead (the story comes from an NPR article). Watch McCain start his campaign against Obama by picking up on the "hope" theme :

Obama won the three Potomac primaries as well. Worth noting is the evolution of his support base : he has managed to win over parts of several constituencies that had previously come out for Clinton. For instance he has made in-roads in the female vote, has gained the support of lower-income Democrats and white voters. 

Is Clinton's base eroding? How does this bode for the coming contests in Winconsin ( next Tuesday) and Ohio and Texas in March? 

Clinton has now lost 8 primaries in a row to Obama and is relying on a strong showing in Texas, with the support of the Hispanic population and in Ohio, thanks to the blue-collar voters of this industrial State. 

And now two videos that have been on all the blogs and media for a couple weeks (the pro-Obama video made by will.i.am) and a couple days (the anti-McCain video). Obama is getting a lot of free advertisement through these youtube videos. 

the week-end's results

Obama won the 3 contests of Saturday (Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington) and unexpectedly Sunday's primary in Maine. Huckabee won in Kansas and Louisiana while Washington has been called for McCain by the local head of the GOP (although the results are very close and the votes had not yet all been counted). For an excellent summary and analysis in French of the latest results : check out In Blog We Trust (hosted by the JDD). 

Watch Mike Huckabee's video : I hope you will enjoy his humor. For instance, he refers to the fact that he comes from Hope, Arkansas like Bill Clinton and tells an inspiring tale of his rise out of poverty.

To find out what is at stake in Tuesday's Potomac primaries ( Virginia, D.C. and Maryland) read NPR's story. 

perspective and analysis on recent events

Today, Louisianna holds its primary and Washington its caucus,  and the Republicans in Kansas and Democrats in Nebraska will also be choosing a candidate in a caucus. Louisianna is quite important for both parties : the consequences of Katrina are still felt today 

and the response offered by the candidates to the issues of reconstruction and endemic poverty are being closely examined. Will Obama's  and Huckabee's lead in the Southern States remain strong?

Ususally, Barack Obama does better in caucuses than Hillary Clinton, we may wonder whether he will gain some more momentum going into Tuesday's contest when DC, Virginia and Maryland vote. 

As we wait for the results I would like to go over a couple recent events : 

1. The financial situation of Hillary Clinton's campaign 
2. The reasons why Mitt Romney's bid for the presidency ultimately failed
3. The state of the Republican coalition

1. Hillary Clinton has loaned $5M to her campaign, what does that mean ? Should we interpret this as a sign of weakness ( Mitt Romney spent $35M of his personal fortune before stepping down)? Or does it show the candidate's committment to his/her campaign ? NPR offers a commentary on this issue, alongside with a spectacularly unflattering picture of Senator Clinton. In the meantime Barack Obama has been raising more than twice as much money as Clinton in the month of January, pointing to a lot of enthousiam for his campaign. The challenge for the Senator from Illinois is converting his general popularity among the young and the independent into votes in the primary elections.
2. An interesting analysis of Mitt Romney's withdrawal (its causes and its consequences for him as a potential future candidate in 2012) is to be heard on NPRs website. Ron Elvin's comment (on the same page) is also very interesting. For a humourous perspective on this event, refer to Jon Stewart's commentary : here. Beware however, Mitt Romney's comment on France is completely out of context in this video. 
3. Is the Republican coalition, as shaped by Ronald Reagang, going to pieces? To what extent is the GOP's ideology changing, and conservatism being redefined? The evangelicals had been the kingmakers for more than 2 decades, but they no longer seem to bear the same weight. Is that because their vote was courted by many candidates or is it because they may be loosing their central role in the conservative coalition? McCain has been winning primaries without their support, however he will need it to win the general election : how is he going to gain their trust? will he pick Huckabee to run as VP? 

Here is a NBC video of the Republican race :

It's interesting that they should go back to Barry Goldwater to find the roots of the conservative movement. Do you remember that he was the Republican candidate in 1964 and presented a completely new vision for the GOP that later became the mainstream ideology.

UPDATE ON THE BILL ISSUE 

Read Bill Clinton's reaction to criticism about the way he has been interfering in his wife's campaign. He does realize that his being a former president has an impact on the way he can engage in political battles. 

The Mitt surprise

Mitt Romney has dropped out of the race in an attempt to strengthen the Republican Party. His presidential bid and the in-fighting between him and Senator McCain was weakening the party and thus compromising the Republicans' chance of keeping the White House. 

See the video and full coverage on the NYTimes page.

This year's primary was very unusual for the Republicans who, in the past, found a front-runner rather quickly (before Super Tuesday) and then used the rest of the campaign to consolidate the position of the nominee. The convention was simply a final show of unity, a big party celebrating the GOP and the launch of the national campaign.

So we might now be back on this traditional pattern of GOP primaries, it all depends on Mike Huckabee's reading of the situation.

Will Romney's dropping out benefit Mike Huckabee with whom he was vying for the evangelical and socially conservative voters? Or will Huckabee find himself forced to drop out as well in order not to appear as the obstinate divider of Republicans? Is he going to continue in the primary but in a friendly manner in order to gain some Vice-Presidential appeal? 

How does all this change McCain's position? How far will he go to appeal to the broad conservative base and solidify his position as a front-runner? 

Watch a 2 minute video on McCain. 

Read the NYTimes article on the impact of this on McCain's campaign. 

The picture is from the NYTimes website. 

not a super-duper surprise

For the full results of "Super-Duper"/tsunami Tuesday click here. To watch Jon Stewart from the/a Daily Show comment on the terms used to define Tuesday, watcher warning: it's cheeky.

The real surprise was on the Republican side with the come back of Mike Huckabee, at least this was a surprise to me, probably reflecting the liberal media I've been reading lately. Huckabee won 5 Southern States, thus proving that he is still in the race and that the evangelical branch of the Republican Party are still capable of getting the vote out and making a difference. Without really up-setting the McCain/Romney race, Huckabee has shown that he can still make a difference and I suspect that ultimately he is weakening Romney by dividing the socially conservative voting block. The former governor from Massachussetts won 7 States, including Utah, not utterly surprisingly. 

The big wins go to McCain who took California and New York, which are two States with winner takes all primaries : in terms of delegates McCain is clearly ahead with a total of 613, to Romney's 269 and Huckabee's 190. McCain has now acknowledged his status as front-runner, saying he "didn't mind it a bit"! 

On the Democratic side, the neck to neck race was expected to continue beyond February 5, and it will for certain. Clinton is slightly ahead in the delegate count but Obama remains a strong contender. Clinton has won the States that have the most delegates and her opponent has taken the States that held caucuses, his home state Illinois and the Southern States, partly thanks to the Black vote. One must wonder who the Edwards supporters have turned to : I suspect they would be more likely to root for Clinton if they are most concerned with economic issues and health care, but might turn to Obama if what they are looking for is another anti-politics-as-usual outsider and if they are wary of the Clinton dynasty and ready for change (or sensitive to the rhetoric of change).

The Latino vote has proved crucial for Hillary Clinton (30% of California Democrats are Latino) and will certainly be a strategic consituency come the November election. For a clear and intelligent analysis of the Latino vote read Nancy Cook's article for NPR. I wonder whether the Latino community's overwhelming support of Clinton will not prove to be Obama's main stumbling block. If Hillary and McCain run for the White House, the Latino vote will be courted by both sides and it will be interesting to see what happens.

the Bill issue...

Before Super-Duper Tuesday, I'd like to provide you with a quick round-up of what's on the grapevine. 

Recently, questions about the role of Bill Clinton in his wife's campaign have emerged. Is he an asset or is he a liability?

 Has he lost touch with contemporary America and politics? Is he still the incredible "natural" potician and campaigner that he was in the 1990s, had he adapted to the new media constraints. 

Time magazine says : "Bill Clinton, get out of the way".

NYTimes offers a short video on the subject : "Hillary's worst half" which is very interesting and I strongly recommend.  

Another issue raised by the important role taken by the former President in the campaign is : what will Bill's role in a new Clinton White House be?  Will he be ubiquitous? will he be in charge of policy? Would that prove to be a problem, materially? democratically? 

A few more noteworthy things: 

There is an interesting opinion-editorial by the NYTimes on the impact John Edwards has had on the Democratic campaign

An analysis of the shift that McCain might need to accomplish from maverick candidate to official front-runner.

Compare the websites of Barack Obama (listen to the "Yes we can" video produced by Obama supporters ) and Hillary Clinton and read the NYTimes mock(?)-analysis : Obama is a Mac and Clinton is a PC.

A friend of mine has advised me to visit a blog in French on the American elections. I find it interesting and really worth a visit. 

And now for all it's worth : the latest polls that give McCain ahead of Romney by a 20% margin and Clinton ahead by 8% but with Obama closing the gap...