There's quite a bit of suspense tonight as we all wait for the results of the two primaries that are currently underway. There's a good commentary on NYTimes presentng the three possible outcomes of today's races (two Clinton victories, two Obama victories, a split decision) and their meaning for the rest of the Democratic nomination process.
A few figures :
Clinton's pledged delegates : 1,338
Obama's pledged delegates : 1,493
Today's primaries will allocate 187 delegates and after that there will only be 217 delegates to allocate in West Virginia ( a State with demographics similar to those of Pennsylvania and Indiana), Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota.
I'll just highlight a few crucial points :
- If the Senator from Illinois loses Indiana (his State's next door neighbour) it will probably be because he will have failed for the third time to appeal to working class whites (the previous States were Ohio and Pennsylvania). This will certainly fuel Clinton's warning that her opponent will be unable of winning in November if the blue-collar voters ( a central constituency of the Democratic Party) don't trust him.
- If Clinton wins N.C or comes very close to Obama., it will certainly prove that momentum is on her side and moreover it will signal that either the Wright controversy has taken a serious toll on his campaign or that the Democratic voters have now become wary of his candidacy.
- If Clinton loses both States, her bid for the White House will have met its end, although she may well not drop out before the start of June.
- It's reasonable to expect that Sen. Clinton will take Indiana and that Sen. Obama will take North Carolina, albeit with a single digit lead and not the original 20% lead he had over his rival in polls a couple weeks ago. Clinton's bid will remain alive and kicking and Obama's campaign will be declining but far from dead.
What I have found remarkable in the last couple weeks is that the working-class vote has become the central battlefield, as the Black vote was in the autumn. Do you remember when Obama was suspected of not being 'Black enough'? We've come a long way!
The other surprising outcome of this campaign that started earlier than ever before is that the States who weren't expected to have any weight because they vote so very late have become the most crucial ones. How ironical for Florida and Michigan who staged earlier primaries but were stripped of their delegates by the DNC for not abiding by the rules (more on this soon...).
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