Saturday, May 31, 2008

Picking a running mate.

Although this is an issue that obviously concerns both the Democrats and the Republicans, I will only deal with the latter ( for a very brief discussion of the Democratic conundrum see my reply to a comment by one of you on a previous post). 
So, John McCain is pondering who to put on his ticket and has launched the "vetting process" to find the best match. 
How do you pick a running mate? How has it been done in the past? 
For an very good and short article on this : read this. For a thirty minute coverage listen to NPR's political junkie. 
The choice of a VP is a strategic one and has always been so, at least ever since the VP was no longer the candidate that received the second most electoral college votes. And when did that rule change? After the 1796 election, John Adams was elected President and his archrival Thomas Jefferson, Vice-President; creating a somewhat awkward situation at the top of the executive branch. In 1804, the 12th Amendment to the Constitution changed that rule.

Basically you have several choices : 
  1. You try and balance your ticket geographically : if you are from an Eastern State you run with someone from the West. McCain is from Arizona, he may want someone that has an eastern background. With this scenario in mind, Mitt Romney from Massachusetts who ran against McCain in the primaries and dropped out in a spectacular manner (remember he said it was for the good of the country and the party...) now thinks he is the real deal and that McCain will pick him, regardless of their lack of warm feelings towards one another. 
  2. You try and balance your ticket ideologically : McCain being alledgedly rather  liberal on social issues or having a reputation for not being a true Republican might want to pick someone with strong conservative credentials in order to satisfy the religious wing of the party (Mike Huckabee?)
  3. You pick someone whose presence on the ticket will deliver a strategic State in the general election. Historical example of this : Lyndon B. Johnson ran on John Fitzgerald Kennedy's ticket and was there to ensure a good performance for the Democrats in Texas : it worked and they were elected. But the two men hated each other and did not work as a team. In this year's context Charlie Christ, the popular governor from Florida (the hotly contested State that was a instrumental in getting George W. Bush elected in 2004) may be a clever choice.
  4. You pick a person that shares your core values and with whom you will form an energetic and convincing team. A good example of this may be the Clinton-Gore ticket.
  5. You chose a VP that is different from you in other ways and will bring some sort of equilibrium to the ticket : McCain will probably pick someone who is much younger than he is (although not too young : you don't want the photo ops to be ridiculous). Mc Cain being rather weak on economic issues, the Republican ticket might be stronger with someone with business and managing experience ( Mitt Romney?). Similarly McCain may choose a woman, or someone that isn't white (Bobby Jindal from Indian-American descent), or even both (Condolizza Rice?), this may also depend of who he is running against in November although there is no simple, hard and fast solution. 
To sum it all up for you. The pundits say that the top three contenders for the VP slot are Charlie Crist, Mitt Romney and Bobby Jindal.

Charlie Crist, the governor from Florida. He would probably guarantee that Florida support the Republicans, even more so  because of what has happened there in the Democratic Party. He has solid conservative credentials but is not married which has raised questions on his sexual orientation, an issue that would not go down too well with the religious wing of the party. 






Selecting Mitt Romney would help McCain in the East, and with voters
 concerned about the economy since his main claim to fame is his success as a businessman and his "saving" the Salt Lake City  from olympian ruin in the 1990s. 





A more audacious choice would be the very young governor of Louisiana Bobby Jindal. He is in his thirties and has just been elected, he is a Roman Catholic with traditional socially conservative views. This choice might reassure Republicans who fear that McCain is too old ( although obviously were McCain to die or be incapacitated during his term, a rather inexperienced VP would have to step up and lead the country) or too liberal. Jindal's ethnic origin could also be seen as an asset, helping change the image of the Republican party as a party of white males. 






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