Some perspective on the Iowa caucus : opening the races.

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What does winning the Iowa caucus mean for Barack Obama?
Obama won thanks to a massive ground organization (required to "get out the vote" = make people go to the caucus/polling station ) and the enthousiasm of young voters & first time caucus-goers, he also won most of the women's votes. All this is bad news for Hillary Clinton who came out third to John Edwards and seemed to appeal most to the elderly population. However she was never very strong in Iowa and her campaign even leaked a memo a couple months ago suggesting that Hillary Clinton should "skip" Iowa, because she was not very popular in that State and would have a hard time luring voters away from John Edwards and Barack Obama. As an example of this strategy, former mayor Giuliani "skipped" Iowa : he spent very little time and money in the State, as he was aware that he had little chance of doing well in the caucus.
So the energy and the momentum seems to be flowing to Obama's campaign and makes him look like a very viable candidate indeed.
New Hampshire will be the second State to vote on January 8. The Clintons are very strong in this eastern liberal State, so Obama's campaign will certainly be tested there. If he comes out a strong second he would be able to maintain momentum for the Florida contest and Super Tuesday. In these States what will prove determining will probably be the young voters and the African-American vote, for now, deeply divided between Clinton and Obama. As Obama appears more likely to win he will probably rally a lot of support. Moreover, despite his lack of experience he might appear more "electable" than Clinton who remains a divise figure and exites the hatred of Republicans.

Barack Obama's victory in Iowa may well be the prelude to a wave of national support capable of displacing Hillary Clinton as the inevitable candidate. In short, his victory in Iowa contributes to opening the Democratic race.

What about Mike Huckabee's victory? What does that change in the Republican field?
The former Arkansas governor and Baptist minister won the caucus thanks to the dynamic support of the evangelical movement. The religious right is actually scoring a bit of a comeback after months of lethargy and dissatisfaction with the Republican candidates ( Giuliani is thrice-divorced, Mitt Romney is a Mormon, Fred Thompson is also a divorcee and may have been involved in pro-choice lobbying, and his campaign never caught fire).
Huckabee might gain momentum from this victory and attract the Southern social conservatives (South Carolina voteson January 19 and several Southern States vote on "Super Tuesday" February 5) and thus become a credible threat to the front-runners.
But Huckabee's victory is probably less important than Mitt Romney's defeat. What do I mean by that?
Mitt Romney expected to win the State and his dissappointing result ( 24% of the vote to Huckabee's 35%) actually sends a very negative signal : even though he spent a lot of money on groung organization and on ads (including negaative ads) he did not convince the Iowans of the strength of his candidacy. His second place might well have a significant impact in the primary in New Hampshire. In the polls, he is neck to neck with John McCain. His "defeat" might turn voters away from him and hand a victory to his opponent. This would probably have an impact on the rest of the primary campaign, opening the race to Giuliani in Florida, which is the State on which he is counting to lauch his campaign ( January 29). With such a scenario, Super Tuesday would really be exciting.
To sum it up, Huckabee's surprise victory in Iowa opens wide the Republican race.

Your reactions to this are very welcome. good luck to all/break a leg!

Next on the blog : analyzing Obama's Iowa victory speech. Does it remind you of anything? Check it out :