I was lucky or right or both to mention the last DesMoines Register poll heralding a victory for Obama and Huckabee in the caucus!
Now the question is : how much momentum does this give the two challengers?
To go about answering this tricky question, I think you have to take a careful look at the constituency of each of these candidates and then go on and weigh how much this can influence New Hampshire primary voters and those who will take part in the following primaries. Basically who voted for Obama/Huckabee? Are these people likely to be as successful in the rest of the country as they are in Iowa?
What do you think?
I'll be back later with my prespective on the issue.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Iowa rooting for Obama and Huckabee
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6 comments:
I think I'll probably never understand Amercian voter's point of view when the thing that most interests them is the religion of their candidates or just a sentece he said 4 years before. I suppose this is the only means to choose a candidate when they all seem to think more or less the same way.
Even the way they see democracy is pretty weird : some states voting before the other's...? months to choose a candidate? meeting where every one wants to make the other adhere to their clan(evening of the vote?!, not to late too choose?) And even if analysts explain that it can be very helpful to win the first states nobody really knows what will happen! then what is this kind of hysteria?
And the ads that they use to deny their 'opponents' in their own camps! have they no arguments pleading for them to be forced to attack the other?
Well, it remains pretty strange to me, but sure, it makes the USA remaining so attractive. I think.
Thank you Anissa, for your reaction, it's great that you are interested and reactive to what is happening on the other side of the "pond" !
What is there to say in defence of negative ads : honestly, not much !
But let's put this back into its context. In the USA, you are allowed to do negative advertising : say that your competitor's product is not as good as your own. So, contrasting/negative ads in politics are only an extension of the general marketing trend. And you must know that, at times, negative ads can, in fact hurt, the person that is using them more than the person that is being criticized. Iowans, for instance, are known to hate negative ads.
Now let's have a look at the primary system as a whole. Of course, one may say that it is too long, useless and very expensive. What if we decide to see it as a positive thing : it empowers the grass roots ( the members of the parties and in some cases all American citizens who want to participate in the selection process are allowed to do so : independent voters are allowed to vote in the Iowa caucus and in the New Hampshire primary, among others). Millions of people can have their say in choosing a candidate : even if you spend a lot of money in a State you might not be able to fight a grassroots movement. This is exactly what happened in Iowa : Mitt Romney had spent tons of money but was unable to defeat the wave of popularity of Mike Huckabee whose campaign has a ridiculously small budget. People feel EMPOWERED by this process : they can make a difference. Whether we like their choice or not is another matter altogether, of course.
Some people have been calling for an overhoal of this system : holding a national primary instead of having a succession of primaries. But remember that the USA is huge and extremely populous (300M) : a national campaign is bound to be less precise and close to the people.
The advantage of the current system is that the candidates have to campaign really hard in the States that matter to them ( Huckabee in Iowa, Giuliani in Florida and N.Y.; Mitt Romney and McCain in New Hampshire ...). This means that people really get to meet the candidates and get to know them, ask them tough questions... If a candidate is not on top of the issues ( bien connaitre les dossiers) he will not be credible/viable. The system forces the candidates to go out there and convince people : they will often meet only a dozen supporters in a home and discuss with them. Maybe this is a truly democratic process after all?
Campaigning in France sometimes seems very superficial and remote from the people and what they care about.
Your last point about what Americans care about is difficult to comment : I've tried to show how much some issues matter in America but it is difficult to grasp because the issues that define the political spectrum are very different.
Let's see what happens on the 8th ( in New Hampshire, where else ?!)
Hello,I just wanted to speak about the video clip in which a girls band who looks like the Pussy cat dolls band is promoting the ideas of Obama.The video is a kind of RnB clip realised by pdiddy!!
Well, it's quite amazing to see this strong determination to win by using the star system!!
I think Obama found the better one: Oprah Winfrey!
He is the new figure the US need!!
khadija.
You're right Obama is good at using the star system to his advantage. We'll se how he does in New Hampshire tonight !
Where can we see the video you are referring to?
i have been looking for it for days but in vain. well I saw it in France2, the program "on a pas tout dit".
Oh, that's a pity! But thanks for looking for the video. I'm glad you are interested in the blog !
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