The place of the South in presidential politics

One of the deep changes that this election year seems to have brought about is a shift in the geo-political balance of the country. After being the stronghold of the Democrats for a century, the South tipped to the Republicans thanks to  Richard Nixon's "Southern Strategy" in 1968 and due to the committment of the Democrats to civil rights reform, racial integration and federal control of the implementation of these policies. 

Since then, the South has been considered: 

1. a bastion of Republicanism

2. a must-win for any presidential candidate 

These two ideas may seem contradictory at first (since Democrats won 3 presidential elections since the 1970s), but remember that the two Democratic Presidents since the 1970s (and for that matter since Lyndon B. Johnson) were southerners and that was a contributing factor to their electoral victory : they managed to take the South (or chunks of it) away from the Republican Party. 

Jimmy Carter, a former Senator and Governor from Georgia, won every single Southern State in 1976 (see electoral map). In 1992, the all Southern ticket, Clinton (Governor of Arkansas)+ Gore (Senator from Tennessee) made significant inroads in the South, taking Georgia, Louisiana and Arkansas along with Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee ( see 1992 electoral map) ; in 1996, the incumbent President and VP won Florida and lost Georgia ( see 1996 electoral map). 

This week I read a very interesting article on the political weight of the  South in American presidential politics after this election. I don't agree with everything they say but it is well worth your time. 

Basically the gist of the argument is this:

The region’s absence from Mr. Obama’s winning formula means it “is becoming distinctly less important,” said Wayne Parent, a political scientist at Louisiana State University. “The South has moved from being the center of the political universe to being an outside player in presidential politics.”

The South is losing its make or break status in presidential politics because :

-   this year NO Southerners were on the presidential tickets of either party. 

-  the South is breaking up as a voting block ( I'd qualify this: look at the Clinton electoral victories) : with peripheral, more suburban and educated states (NC, Va and Fl) falling out of step with the rest of the region.

-  the Southern white male vote went emphatically to McCain and is no longer needed to win the election. 

-  the South is now the last bastion of Republicanism ( I'd say : have another look at the electoral map, the Mid West is solidly GOP as well!) and the country's political divide may well be a sectional one as well, i.e. geographical areas are split up between the parties. In this case, there are very few Republicans in the Senate and House of Representatives elected by the North-East, which is solidly Democratic and it's the other way around in the South . I trust that my students remember what the sectional divide of the country build the grounds for in the 1840-60s. 

I'd like to add that perhaps the South is changing and turning away from some of its core beliefs (opposition to federal/Northern interference, defence of small governement and low taxes; all of which can be summarized in the motto "States' Rights" with all the historical baggage that comes with it...) and rattled as it is by the crisis may well be opening up to some of the Democratic policy proposals. I still have in mind the uncanny homemade sign mentionned earlier : "Rednecks 4 Obama, cause even we're sick of this s#@*". 

How true this general analysis will prove to be is difficult to assess. 

Why? Because of the rather unsual circumstances of this electoral contest : an incumbent president with the lowest ratings ever, an embattled Republican party, a Black candidate, an unprecedented economic crisis. All the factors certainly distorted the political dynamics of the country. And whether some of the trends, initiated in 2008, will prove lasting is yet to be seen. 

For more on electoral shifts and detailed county by county data : survey this interactive map. 

I was thinking of discussing the future of the Republican Party in one of my next posts, rather than President elect Obama's transition team.  Does that sound good? 

Pictures contributed by my special correspondant in Atlanta, Georgia