is the momentous day coming at last?

Will March 4 bring us any certainty on the outcome of the Democratic race for the nomination? Remember that Texas and Ohio vote, along with two small north-eastern States : Vermont and Rhode Island. Watch a video on the campaign in Ohio. 

There are obviously 3 options (as highlighted by the British newspaper The Guardian). 

If Sen. Clinton looses both States she will probably be definitely out of the race : Bill Clinton has even asserted that she must win in Ohio and Texas for her campaign to be viable. 

If she does manage a double win, which seems less likely today than two weeks ago, she will still be "in the race", albeit with little advantage on the delegate count front (unless she wins with a huge margin to make up for her previous losing streak). 

The last possibility is : Clinton wins one of the big States and the other goes to Obama. The consequences on the race of this scenario are even more difficult to assess. Nobody has a clue where it will go from there. 

Catch up with me on Wednesday morning : I'll be commenting on the results as early as possible. 

A Clinton ad : 

Obama's response ( the classic) : 

On the Republican side the nomination of John McCain is now wrapped. The question is : how will he campaign against Sen. Obama if he happens to be the nominee. And indeed McCain has already launched a series of attacks against him, since he has emerged as the "front-runner", replacing Hillary Clinton, the Democrat that the Republicans love to hate. 

If Clinton is the candidate, it will make it easier for McCain to unify the right against her. But if Obama is the Democratic nominee, McCain will have to fight for the moderate/independent voters to whom they both appeal significantly. 

How far will McCain go to get the evangelical vote, a groupe of voters that he has repeatedly aggravated by insulting some of its leaders? Where will he find the vote if Obama is the candidate?

A commentator from the NYTimes wrote a column on how McCain's strategy against Obama was very similar to the one used by Hillary Clinton (all-talk, no-policy ; weak on foreign affairs; idealist; inefficient, veiled allusions to his race...). This line of attack might prove just as inadequate in the general election as it has prove for the last couple weeks.  

A summary of the Ohio debate mentionned on the previous post :