The GOP coalition: what's new?

To what extent is John McCain able to keep the Republican coalition together?

Remember that since the 1980s the force of the GOP has rested in the union of the two branches of American conservatism : 

1. traditional conservatives : proponents of fiscal restraint, small government, States' rights, emphasis on individual liberty and responsability (freedom of speech and gun rights). 
2. the evangelical branch of the GOP, emphasizing moral issues (abortion, gay rights) and extending their interest to fighting against poverty, and other global issues such as defence of the environment, social justice...

Sen. McCain is a true traditional conservative ( meaning 1) and has in the past antagonized the evangelical voters by calling their leaders such as Jerry Falwell bigots (=people that have such a strong feeling about something that they are unwilling to listen to others) and extremists. Before Mike Huckabee the former baptist pastor cum governor of Arkansas ended his bid for the White House, the GOP primary clearly reflected this divide within the party.

Today the questions are : 

1. Are the evangelicals losing ground in the GOP? 
2. Where will the evangelical vote turn to in November? 

I believe that the 2008 GOP primary has proved that the relative force of the evangelical voting block might be waning. But more importantly the primary has shown that the evangelicals do not rule the party even though they represent a huge force when they decide to back someone that already has the confidence of the first type of Republican voters. Indeed Bush's candidacy was made extremely powerful by the militancy of the "value voters" added to the numbers of traditional conservatives. 

For John McCain to win the election in November he needs either the support of the evangelicals (this could be acheived by the choice of Mike Huckabee as running mate : the latter has made clear that he would accept such an offer in an interview with NPR) or the vote of the independant voters. I believe it would be difficult to court both voting blocks simultaneously, except if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. On the other hand, if Barack Obama is his opponent, John McCain will have to fight very hard for the independants that are quite attracted to the Senator from Illinois. In that case it might be in his interest to turn more decisively to the right wing of his party?

Where will the evangelical vote go in November? For some people the value voters will inevitably turn to the Republican candidate, but for Clyde Wilcox, professor of government at Georgetown University, McCain may not be able to rein in the evangelicals. In that case, these voters might stay at home or even vote for Obama or maybe even for Clinton. 

  Listen to the excellent NPR coverage and interviews on the subject. 

Before making any brash decisions, I think McCain is waiting to have a clear idea on who his opponent will be in November, in order to devise the most efficient strategy to win the election.