Will the Blagojevich scandal affect Obama?

In most US States when a Senate seat becomes empty (for cause of death, resignation or election to another office), the governor gets to appoint someone to fill in until the next election.

By now I suppose every one has heard of the  ugly scandal that is currently unfolding in Illinois. The Democratic goveror Rod Blagojevich was caught talking about exchanging the Senate seat vacated by Obama for something (preferably involving money for him, his wife or his campaign) on a wire-tap. This is referred to as the "pay to play" scheme.

 Rod Blagojevich : quel toupet !

What is most surprising is not that the governor should try to "trade" the Senate seat for fundraising (obviously that must be a common practice, how could it not be?) but that he should be so open about the personal benefits that he could obtain but most mind-boggling is the fact that he had the cheek to do this over the phone. He should have known better, all the more so since he knew he was under investigation byPatrick J Fitzgerald a federal prosecutor for other allegations of corruption ! 

A little time watching HBO's extraordinary TV series The Wire ( Sur Ecoute, in France) would have prevented great harm to the governor and his reputation. Bagojevich is constantly compared to Tony Soprano by the media, although the mobster was probably a bit more FBI wary than the politician. 

Now how does all this affect President-elect Obama? 

Although personally, there is no love lost between the two men and Obama would certainly not want to be involved in this corrupt business, there are several reasons to suspect that the President-elect (and/or his staff) might have known more than he claimed in recent declarations. 

1. It is the Senate seat that he has just vacated : so although he has denied any wrongdoing and even any direct or staff-channelled contact with the governor or his staff, it seems a bit unlikely that Obama would know nothing at all about who was being considered to replace him and that he

2. Several of the candidates considered were close Obama aides or advisors. And Jesse Jackson Jr. formerly responsible for Obama's fundraising operation (remember how he repudiated his father's rude gaffe) was actually referred to as "candidate number 5" in telephone conversations and one of his aides had been approached with the deal. The content of these phonecalls seem to indicate that the congressman agreed to help with the governor's fundraising in exchange for the Senate position. 

In the left leaning blog The Nation, John Nichols makes the case to defend Jesse Jackson Jr by arguing that the congressman has a history of defending reform and refusing to compromise politically, making him thus unlikely of trying to accept the governor's pay to play game. I can see the point but wonder whether it is really convincing : does being honest and ready to risk politial capital in many circumstances prove that you would never accept to raise money in exchange for a position to which  you are unlikely of getting elected. 

3. In some of the governor's dreamland scenarii, he would get appointed in the Obama administration in exchange for the Senate seat. How could Obama's staff be completely ignorant of this? Or we could also imagine and some have argued that the Obama staff may be the ones who blew the whistle on the governor's wheelings and dealings and warned the federal prosecutor of what was going on. In that case, they should have come clean about it as soon as possible. 

4. The fourth and strongest connection between the Obama administration and Rod Blagojevich is the future chief of staff, Rahm Emmanuel who worked very closely with the governor in the past. These two know each other very well and Emmanuel is certainly the person with whom the governor or his staff would have got in touch if they wanted to exchange favors. Click here for more on this : to read an article reporting that sources confirmed that Emmanuel had spoken to Blagojevich's chief of staff. 

I don't want to argue that Obama and his staff knew about this but rather more modestly that it seems a bit unlikely that no one on the President elect's team knew anything about the governor's shennenigans.