When trying to predict the outcome of the American presidential election, the most important thing to keep in mind is the electoral map. It certainly is needless to repeat this to my students from Cergy, but it doesn't matter how well you do at the national level (popular vote), what really matters is how many States you win and thus how many electoral votes you get. Remember that this is a winner takes all system : if you win one State you carry all its electoral votes. Each State is allocated a number of electoral vote based on its population.
To become President, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes
NPR offers a dynamic and interactive map that is based on polling in local states and that you can play with to see how each state afects the outcome. I strongly recommend having a look at this, it will help you get an idea of how the election will play out.
For the West Wing fans out there, I'm sure you all remember that the map is the most important prop of the campaign episodes.
What we really need to have a look at if we want to have a clue about the final outcome of the election is the battle-ground states. Basically, more than half of the States are clearly blue or red, for a whole host of reasons, historic, economic, cultural, sociological... But around 15 states are "battle-ground States", these are States that need to be won to make the difference and carry the election. The Economist has been offering excellent in depth coverage of these battle ground States since August and if you are interested in the nitty-gritty of the election, I'd say the series is a must read.
For instance, Ohio is both a swing-state (changes sides regulary) and a bellwether (it has consistently voted for the winner since 1960). Both parties will be vying to win the 20 electoral votes of that State and pollsters are keeping an eye on the polls to try and predict which way the election might go.
Other swing states include :
Enjoy the read and take care.
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