Primaries

I hope you had the time and energy to get the homework for seminar 11 done, and I'm sorry I did not have the time to go through the important points with all of you.
In a nutshell : what you have to remember is that the first caucuses and primaries are extremely important. If the front runner wins the Iowa caucus and/or the New Hampshire primary then it is very likely that s/he will go on to win the nomination. But if these first two races are won by a challenger, this gives his/her campaign a huge momentum that might ultimately even lead to the defeat of the national front-runner.
The importance of these two first States is huge, and this, in turn, explains why the candidates spend so much time there, especially those who are not ahead in the national polls, such as Mike Huckabee ( GOP) and John Edwards (Democrat). Because if they manage to carry the first States, they become competitive and might even win the nomination thanks to the momentum they will have gained. These first States enjoy picking a candidate that is not the obvious choice : in a way this might give them even more weight in the process (they give a chance to someone who is not the national front-runner).
For instance, Jimmy Carter was completely unknown and nicknamed "Jimmy Who?" untill he won the Iowa caucus and then went on to win the Democratic nomination and the presidential election in 1976. Of course this is not a hard and fast rule, you will find many exceptions, but the media pays a lot of attention to the early election because they yield a first trend (obviously) and that's all that they'll have to go on untill Super Tuesday when most of the States vote including some big States such as New York, California.
The Economist in their latest edition defend this unusual system.



Rudy Giuliani is the national front runner but is being challenged by two contenders who are ahead of him in the early States.
Here's a "negative ad" by Mitt Romney attacking Mike Huckabee who has recently emerged as the front runner in Iowa. This was a complete surprise but, as a Baptist minister he appeals to social conservatives and evangelicals ( the religious right). His popularity is alarming Mitt Romney who is courting the social conservative/Christian vote.




The next video is Mike Huckabee's holiday ad: both responding to people who are tired of political ads (by yet another one!) and to the Christian audience:



This ad has created a bit of controversy, especially regarding the white book shelf in the back ground : what do you think?
Read NPR's comment on this.


Giuliani's Christmas ad :



Do you find it funny? Some commentators say this joke doesn't really work.

A couple ads from the other side now.
A classical Hillary Clinton motherly ad :



John Edwards is arguing for an overhaul of the entire system ( "the system is rigged") and indirectly attacking Hillary Clinton as a member of the "Establishment".



Barack Obama tries to carry people away with his new vision for America.



NB :
Red America = Republican America
Blue America : Democratic America
As you will probably have noticed the colors representing the two parties have changed over time : basically until the 2000 there was no pre-determined color code but most TVs represented the Republican States with blue and the Democratic States were symbolised with red. (The map I used in the powerpoint presentation for the 1980 election uses the new color code but was probably not the one used on TVs at the time.)
In 2000, all media outlets started using the same color-code and because this was a hotly contested election, the new code stuck. I hope this isn't too confusing for you, just remember today R=R and D=B.
I got the explanation from wikipedia's article.