What is "McCainism"?

NPR has an excellent coverage of John McCain's maverick profile within the GOP and what it might mean for the Republican Party as a whole and for a possible McCain presidency. What will the Republican base make of his foreign policy commitments to the war in Irak with his wish to reform the American immigration policy and his stance on campaign funding ( on the latter issues he parts way with the Republican orthodoxy)? If they are disappointed with these proposals they are likely to stay at home.
Maybe his new message will attract new voters to the GOP : that is probabaly what he is aiming at.

Obama on race

The racial issue has been a strong undercurrent in the Democratic campaign since Barack Obama announced his candidacy. And it has emerged from the deep waters regularly.
The Black community at first raised doubts about his commitment to the community because of his post-racial rhetoric and his Kenyan origins set him apart from the people whose forbearers toiled under slavery. Now he might appear as somewhat "too Black", for belonging to a church led by a fiery proponent of Black pride, Rev Jeremiah Wright.

This is the beginning of his speech on race. You can access the rest of it via youtube or watch the entire speech on the NYTimes website or else read the transcript.
He has clearly once again positionned himself as an American leader making a historic speech.

The GOP coalition: what's new?

To what extent is John McCain able to keep the Republican coalition together?

Remember that since the 1980s the force of the GOP has rested in the union of the two branches of American conservatism : 

1. traditional conservatives : proponents of fiscal restraint, small government, States' rights, emphasis on individual liberty and responsability (freedom of speech and gun rights). 
2. the evangelical branch of the GOP, emphasizing moral issues (abortion, gay rights) and extending their interest to fighting against poverty, and other global issues such as defence of the environment, social justice...

Sen. McCain is a true traditional conservative ( meaning 1) and has in the past antagonized the evangelical voters by calling their leaders such as Jerry Falwell bigots (=people that have such a strong feeling about something that they are unwilling to listen to others) and extremists. Before Mike Huckabee the former baptist pastor cum governor of Arkansas ended his bid for the White House, the GOP primary clearly reflected this divide within the party.

Today the questions are : 

1. Are the evangelicals losing ground in the GOP? 
2. Where will the evangelical vote turn to in November? 

I believe that the 2008 GOP primary has proved that the relative force of the evangelical voting block might be waning. But more importantly the primary has shown that the evangelicals do not rule the party even though they represent a huge force when they decide to back someone that already has the confidence of the first type of Republican voters. Indeed Bush's candidacy was made extremely powerful by the militancy of the "value voters" added to the numbers of traditional conservatives. 

For John McCain to win the election in November he needs either the support of the evangelicals (this could be acheived by the choice of Mike Huckabee as running mate : the latter has made clear that he would accept such an offer in an interview with NPR) or the vote of the independant voters. I believe it would be difficult to court both voting blocks simultaneously, except if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. On the other hand, if Barack Obama is his opponent, John McCain will have to fight very hard for the independants that are quite attracted to the Senator from Illinois. In that case it might be in his interest to turn more decisively to the right wing of his party?

Where will the evangelical vote go in November? For some people the value voters will inevitably turn to the Republican candidate, but for Clyde Wilcox, professor of government at Georgetown University, McCain may not be able to rein in the evangelicals. In that case, these voters might stay at home or even vote for Obama or maybe even for Clinton. 

  Listen to the excellent NPR coverage and interviews on the subject. 

Before making any brash decisions, I think McCain is waiting to have a clear idea on who his opponent will be in November, in order to devise the most efficient strategy to win the election. 

racial lines?

Mississippi went to Obama yesterday, with 90% of Blacks supporting him and 70% of Whites voting for Hillary Clinton. I would tend to see this racial divide as a bit of a problem for the Democratic candidate, regardless of who wins the nomination.

That is exactly what NYTimes commentator John Harwood is now saying in a 2minute video analysis of the Mississippi's primary. 

A racial comment by Geraldine Ferrerro (who ran as VP for Walter Mondale in 1984) created contreversy these last couple days and led to her resignation from the Clinton fund-raising operation yesterday. She had declared that Barack Obama would not have come this far had he not been African-American. 

Obama's response to the VP offer

Barack Obama "did not blink" and made clear that he is not interested in running for VP. 

You might have noticed that Sen. Obama is using arguments that seem vaguely familiar!

Let's watch how all this plays out in Mississippi today.

A Clinton-Obama ticket?

What surprised me the most is that Clinton should suggest that she might be on the top of the ticket although she is running slightly behind him in the primaries. Such a gesture is usually made by the front-runner to a weaker candidate in the hope of unifying the party, at last. The consequence of this smart political tactic is that it places the Obama campaign in a bit of a dilemna : 

• accept the offer and give up its aim of changing politics
  
• refuse the offer and appear as over-ambitious and be seen as the divider of the party that is need of unity. 
  

 The question is, at this point, hasn't there been too much bad blood between the candidates? 

The other incongruity of this proposal is that Clinton considers Obama not to be ready to assume the responsabilities of commander in chief but would accept him to be "one heart beat away" from being President : remember that the VP is meant to replace the President should anything go wrong.  

I wonder : is it politically wise for her to make such offer (positing herself as the real front-runner and making a move in favor of reconciliation), or does it simply look incredibly brash, disconnected from reality and condescending ? 

Mississippi voting

On Saturday, Sen. Obama won the Wyoming caucus with a significant margin, as he has almost always won caucuses : an electoral procedure in which the activist Democrats have the most influence. 

Tomorrow, Mississippi is holding its primary. The most important issue for the State's Democr

ats is healthcare ahead of the war in Irak and NAFTA-related issues (globalisation and free trade). Although this might give an edge to Senator Clinton, the demographics of Mississippi would suggest a strong support for Obama, at least due to the weight of the African American population there. 

The questions I will be answering next are : 

- How can Hillary Clinton win the nomination? 

- How can the dispute over the Michigan and Florida delegates be solved? 

I'd be happy to have your point of view on these problems.