Veep talk

Last week there's been a lot of talk in the media on the possibility that McCain was about to pick a V.P. and would make an announcement on Tuesday (today). There has been no such disclosure yet and actually the expectations had already subsided at the end of last week when it became clear that this was only a ploy to get the media's attention while Barack Obama's European triumph was getting non-stop coverage. 

But the V.P. picking season has come and there is a lot of chatter about it right now. To learn more about some of the strategies you can always go back to my previous posting on the subject. 

To sum up the more recent developments, let's say that Mitt Romney has inched up in the list and now seems to be the favorite, despite the huge tension between him and McCain during the primary campaign. Would this original tension be a boon for Democrat ads? certainly. But would it undermine McCain's presidential bid? probably not. Remember that Romney has a strong appeal for the more traditional conservatives, that are still wary of McCain's maverick reputation, depsite his efforts to convince them that he was a true conservative. Witness his recent courting of the right and his policy shifts or flip-flops on crucial issues such as oil drilling in America ( from no to yes), immigration policy ( from reforming the legalization system to tightening the borders) and the Bush tax cuts ( from "no, they only help the rich" to "yes, they are a good thing and should be made permanent"). 

The N.Y. Times has an excellent video on how the McCain-Romney relationship had evolved from harsh ennimity to jocular friendliness -almost.

On the Democratic side, there seems to be a virtual infinity of possibility. Who do you think Barack Obama should pick?

 

• Hillary Clinton, to reunite the party and give some satisfaction to her supporters? Wouldn't that discourage people who are taken in by the rhetoric of change? 
  
• Bill Richardson, to appeal to the Latino voters and offer reassuring foreign policy and grand scale executive expecience? How would this choice affect the decision of one of the key constituencies that the Democrats must try and win: the working class white male? 
  
• What about other Democratic heavy weights such as Al Gore and Joe Biden, what would they  bring to the ticket? 
  
• Should he choose a woman? Governor Kathleen Sebelius from Kansas or Janet Napolitano the governor of McCain's own State, Arizona ( which might possibly be a battle-ground State). 

If you want to know more about the potential VPs in both camps, I strongly recommend the excellent chart presented by Ken Rudin on NPR's website ( look for a column entitled "Veepstakes"). 

McCain at home, Obama overseas

With Barack Obama travelling the world this week with the three major news anchors in tow, the Democratic candidate is the story and John McCain is fighting hard to be heard and strongly denouncing the enthralled media coverage afforded to his opponent. 

On his website you can watch and vote for two videos which expose the media bias. This is the one which has received most votes :

I think that it is fair to say that the media were/are quite enamored with Obama, but I think we should be careful about the actual date of broadcast of these soundbites : I believe some of them are at least several months old. 

There's now a lot of talk of how in the end Obama is just another politician, how he has changed his mind on important issues (gun rights, surveillance, Irak?). These comments are coming both from the right ( read an article from a conservative webzine American Thinker) and from the left (read Robert Sheer's article on The Nation's website.)

And last I'd like to address the question raised by Laetitia a couple weeks ago now : can Barack Obama win the election. The polls have had him ahead of John McCain for some time now, although his lead is declining, as reported by American Thinker, what I beleive is a right wing media. More significantly the issue is : does a lead in the polls mean anything? It might mean less than what the Democrats hope it means, as explained by NPR's Juan William. 

These are the things we want to keep in mind when trying to ascertain the final November result : 

• Elections are won by the candidate with the most electoral votes not by the winner of the popular vote. Some States are expected to be very close race and some traditional red States might even vote Democratic ( Virginia, Ohio), and all the "swing states" (Florida, Iowa, Pennsylvania) will be crucial. The race is thus more local/statewide than it is national. The candidates will pick battle ground States and invest a lot there to turn the vote in their favour. 
• Certain electoral groups are yet undecided and may well support one or the other candidate. Amongst them, one should mention : Hispanics and white working class males. Even the evangelical voting block, as far as it exists, is being hotly contested by the candidates. 

Is this the easy way around your question, Laetitia? It probably is, but I don't feel very comfortable in making predictions and am more interested in the process and understanding how each candidate can create the magic winning coalition of forces. 

more on race in the race

If you were interested in the previous post and on the way African-Americans will weigh in on the November election, I strongly recommend this article on NPR and the interviews attached. 

Two things are indeed worth noting : the GOP is courting the Black vote as it has rarely done before and Conservative Blacks are facing a real dilemna : cast a historic ballot by supporting a Black man or vote according to their convictions. 

What do you make of this dilemna? Should racial advancement trump political beliefs? 

Barack Obama and Blacks, a misunderstanding?

Last week, the famous Reverend Jesse Jackson, a civil rights activist and the first African American to have had a shot at the Democratic nomination for president made a huge gaffe: he did not know that his mic was on when he made an assertion ( "Barack Obama talks down to Blacks") and an aggressive comment on how we would like to punish Obama for being demeaning towards the African-Americans !

You can imagine how much hype this caused. One of the most famous and revered African American making such a rude comment when he thought he was off the record. 

Another factor that hyped this up was the fact that Jesse Jackson Jr, the reverend's own son made a resounding criticism of these remarks and disowned his father in a way no one ever had. Jesse Jackson Jr. has been involved in running the Obama campaign since the beginning and is one of his staunchest supporters. Watch the video of the CNN anchor reading out the statement of Jesse Jackson Jr repudiating his father's remarks (in the background a video of Jesse Jackson Sr.)

Why is it possible for Reverend Jesse Jackson to say such a thing?  What in Obama's campaign pushed him to take such a radical stance? 

Basically the main reproach Jesse Jackson and other African-Americans have been making to the Obama campaign is that he is too intent on pleasing the white electorate and thus takes the Black vote for granted. For instance, some of Obama's speaches on how Black men should take reponsibility for the actions and truly fulfill the parental duties. To them, such rhetoric seems designed to reassure the white voters on Obama's values and his desire to "reform" the broken Black family and encourage young Black men to be responsible fathers and citizens, and thus probably less threatening than the perenial cliché of the "angry Black man". 

The left-wing of the Democratic Party, along with many Black politicians and activists see this as a white crowd pleasing gimmick, steering the debate away from the real issues : the deep-rooted causes of Black poverty. 

I think that Obama is developing a very traditional discourse on personal responsibility, well tailored to his own success story ( son of a Kenyan immigrant) and deeply rooted in American values of self-help, courage and work. This is characteristic of the shift to the center operated by Obama for the general election campaign (see previous post).

What does it mean about Barack Obama's campaign and his relationship to the African-American community? 

I think that what we are seeing is remarkable and historic : the arrival of a new generation of politicians who have not been part of the civic rights movement of the 1950s-60s. Barack Obama's message is not specifically designed to please the African-American community nor will his policies be specifically oriented towards them. Previously most Black politicians had more or less represented Black constituencies and had been thus most focussed on the needs of their community. 

As he is trying to create a new brand brand of "post-racial" politics, Obama has been wary of appearing as the Blacks' candidate and thus may well have erred on the side of non-racial partisanship. 

No one seriously believes that the Black community will come out for McCain in November, but one may wonder how the global strategy of the campaign will affect the old-guard of the civic rights movement who still wields quite a bit of political weight within the African-American community ( a bit more that 10% of the American population). Will the Blacks vote in November? Can Obama  win without them? and how would it playout during his presidency?

Should he take the Black vote for granted? 

Are we really seeing the end of racial politics with Obama or is he a Black politician trying to be White?

flip-flops for the summer

Flip-flopping is extremely dangerous in American politics.  

Both candidates have recently come under attack for changing their positions to suit  the expectations of the voters they were courting. 

For instance the  online version of the right wing publication The   National Review lists the examples of policy shifts by Barack Obama : on free trade ( he attacked NAFTA during the primary to ingratiate himself with the Democratic mid-western voters but is now distancing himself from his earlier comments to please the independents); on campaign finance; gun control; Reverend Wright, etc... 

Meanwhile the socially and economically liberal The Economist, strongly criticizes John McCain for his "lurch to the right" and for relinquishing his former moderate and independent pleasing opinions. McCain is now less staunchly opposingthe use of torture, the existence of the Guatanamo Bay detention center. He has also forsaken his moderate approach to immigration policy, his initial oppisition to the Bush tax-cuts... The Economist suggests that this is a wrong-headed strategy which will play in Barack Obama's hands. "American elections classically involve a two-step: the candidate runs to the extreme in the primary , then back to the center for the general. Mr Obama is doing that. Mr McCain seems to be doing precisely the opposite. It is a mistake". 

Moreover, it is counter-intuitive: if McCain managed to win the Republican primary without the more conservative section of the party's base, why wouldn't he stick to his moderate policy in the general election, when the conservative voters represent a smaller proportion of the electorate. I think that it comes down to this: Obama's appeal to the independents is very threatening to McCain's centrist strategy and makes the 30M strong evangelical voting block more desirable than ever. 

McCain is undoubtedly trying to rally the conservative and religious base of the GOP. The choice of the VP, will give us a clear signal of the McCain strategy. For instance, if McCain wants to rally the evangelical conservatives, Bobby Jindal from Louisianna might be a good pick and would undoubtedly signal that McCain is not tring to conquer the political center. 

The issue is : how detrimental will these flip-flops be to the candidates? Are some policy shifts worse than others, which ones will be used in the ad-war which is likely to be waged before the election. McCain has already seized on Obama's change of heart on campaign finance : 

To celebrate July 4th with the Americans you can organize a celebratory barbecue ( the traditional American occupation on this day) or listen to the Declaration of Independence read by the NPR journalists.